Value investing is a financial strategy based on the company’s financial information.
The Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (further referred to as Algonquin) is “a growth-focused company” that “has grown through organic initiatives, strategic acquisitions and development of world-class renewables” as stated by themselves. However, a point of interest is that they are paying dividends despite their positioning as a growth company.
Algonquin’s share price recently lost about 49 % of its market value. Some investors might think that when the stock price falls about 50 percent, it self-evidently reaches its bottom and that it is precisely the time to buy the stock. Indeed, Nathan Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier, said that “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” However, hardly anyone of us is a Rothschild and such rash conclusion can not be drawn because share price can indeed drop to 0. One can buy stocks that have dropped in price only after thorough review of reasons for such an event.
Growth investors bet on growth (and stock buybacks), while dividend seekers bet on dividends and expect some growth (or stock buybacks).
Fundamentally a good company (or a “buy”) must create wealth (sales trends, margin analysis). In addition, value creation requires capital investments (fixed assets, working capital) that must be financed (by shareholders’ equity or borrowings) to provide sufficient returns to shareholders (return on capital employed, return on equity). Ideally, such a company should also trade below its intrinsic value.
Algonquin, from 2018 through 2020, created wealth (revenue increased). Algonquin created value based on capital investments employed (the net Property, plant, and equipment increased) that was adequately financed (by shareholders’ equity or borrowings) and provided sufficient returns (return on equity remained positive). The current ratio was below 1, indicating that a company can face liquidity issues (running short on cash). However, current ratios for the Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services can be lower than 1; this illustrates the need to compare ratios between similar companies.
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This year Algonquin suffered a net loss based on quarterly results (9/29/2022), resulting in negative EPS and a negative P/E ratio. Thus, the stock price fell (or was adjusted closer to fundamental value). Also, this can have a negative impact on dividend payments.
Algonquin is not a start-up and is a listed company. Thus, when assessing its fundamentals, we expect Algonquin to be somewhat overvalued and not at risk of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy risk is most significant for new companies and unlisted companies. Thus, dropping shares at this point may not be the best approach, as there is a fair chance of stock price bouncing back.
Summary
Algonquin creates wealth (revenue increases) by investing capital (the net Property, plant, and equipment value increases) and is financed by shareholders’ equity and borrowings. However, based on the newest quarterly data ((9/29/2022), Algonquin did not provide sufficient returns (return on equity is negative, EPS is negative). In addition, the current ratio is below one, indicating that a company can face liquidity issues. As a result, Algonquin is at risk of being overvalued and can decrease dividend payout.
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